FIJI’S electoral balance is set to shift further towards iTaukei voters over the next two years, with demographic projections pointing to a growing iTaukei majority in the electorate and a continued decline in the Indo-Fijian voter share.
The projections are contained in the 232-page report An Electoral System for the People, From the People, prepared by a team led by former Chief Justice Daniel Fatiaki, that was appointed in 2025 to review key election-related laws, including the Electoral Act 2014, the Electoral (Registration of Voters) Act 2012, and the Political Parties (Registration, Conduct, Funding & Disclosures) Act 2013.
The report, obtained by The Fiji Times, examines population and voter trends and warns political parties will need to respond to significant changes in the composition of Fiji’s electorate.
The review estimates the number of iTaukei voters aged 18 and above will increase from 390,795 in 2025 to 400,942 in 2027.
Over the same period, the projected number of Indo-Fijian voters is expected to fall from 194,405 to 188,617.
As a result, the iTaukei share of eligible voters is projected to rise from 62.5 per cent to 63.5 per cent, while the Indo-Fijian share falls from 31.1 per cent to 29.9 per cent.
“There is every indication that this trend of increasing iTaukei share and declining Indo-Fijian share will continue into the foreseeable future,” the report states.
The demographic shift is even more pronounced among younger Fijians.
The report projects that iTaukei will account for 70.5 per cent of 17-year-olds in 2025, increasing to 71.7 per cent by 2027. The Indo-Fijian share is projected to decline from 22.3 per cent to 21 per cent.
The review says the figures challenge longstanding concerns about iTaukei political representation and claims that demographic trends could result in iTaukei voters being electorally dominated.
“Those fears have no statistical basis,” the report states, pointing to the projected growth in iTaukei voter numbers.
But the report also identifies young voters as an increasingly important political constituency.
Although the proportion of voters aged 18 to 35 has declined from about 47 per cent to 35 per cent over the past two decades, the group remains large enough to influence election outcomes.
The decline is particularly pronounced among Indo-Fijian youths, whose share of voters is projected to fall from 46 per cent in 2007 to 20 per cent by 2027.
The review suggests political parties consider introducing quotas for young candidates to increase youth representation.
This report has since been superseded by a Constitution Review Report, which was considered by Cabinet last week and is expected to be presented to Parliament soon.
