Fiji is expected to experience significantly drier-than-normal conditions through the end of the year as a strengthening El Niño event continues to develop across the tropical Pacific.
In its latest Climate Outlook for July to December 2026, the Fiji Meteorological Service says the current El Niño is expected to strengthen further and is likely to remain in place through the remainder of 2026.
“El Niño is currently underway and is strengthening across the tropical Pacific Ocean.”
The outlook indicates that rainfall across Fiji is likely to be normal or below normal in July, before becoming below normal across the country from July through September.
The dry conditions are forecast to persist into the final quarter of the year, with below normal rainfall expected across the Fiji Group, including Rotuma, from October to December.
The Meteorological Service says the outlook is consistent with the typical impacts of an El Niño event.
“El Niño conditions are generally associated with below normal rainfall in Fiji, especially during the Dry Season.”
Despite the drier outlook, temperatures are expected to remain largely near normal across Fiji between July and September, while Rotuma is likely to experience above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures.
Forecasters have cautioned, however, that every El Niño event behaves differently.
“No two El Niño events are the same. Consequently, rainfall and temperature impacts may vary from one El Niño event to another.”
The outlook signals an increased risk of prolonged dry conditions across much of the country in the coming months, underscoring the need for close monitoring of water resources, agriculture and fire risk as Fiji moves deeper into the dry season.
