A tropical depression being monitored by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) in Nadi has a high potential of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours, with the system forecast to move towards the Cook Islands.
In its Tropical Disturbance Advisory issued today, October 16, RSMC Nadi confirmed that Tropical Depression TD01F was located near 10.4 degrees south and 163.8 degrees west at midday Fiji time.
The system had a central pressure of 997 hectopascals and was moving south at approximately seven kilometres per hour, with winds near its centre estimated at 55 kilometres per hour.
According to the advisory, thunderstorms surrounding the depression remain persistent and are gradually becoming better organised.
The system is currently located in an environment favourable for further development, with low vertical wind shear, good atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures of approximately 29 degrees Celsius.
Global weather models indicate that TD01F will continue moving south to southeast while intensifying.
RSMC Nadi forecasts that winds near the centre could strengthen to approximately 74 kilometres per hour by midday Saturday, October 17.
Further intensification is expected, with winds potentially reaching 93 kilometres per hour by early Sunday, October 18.
The forecast track places the developing system in the vicinity of the northern Cook Islands, although its precise position and potential impacts remain subject to changes in its movement and intensity.
The depression is being monitored by Fiji’s regional cyclone forecasting centre because RSMC Nadi is responsible for tracking and issuing advisories on tropical cyclones across a large part of the southwest Pacific.
The advisory does not indicate that the system poses a direct threat to Fiji.
Authorities and communities in potentially affected areas are advised to monitor subsequent tropical cyclone advisories as the system develops.
