FIJI’S import bill for petroleum products such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel has risen sharply in recent months, with imports of mineral fuels for the first four months of this year totalling $656.2 million, 36.3 per cent higher than the same period in 2025.
ANZ senior Pacific economist Dr Kishti Sen and senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes said this was driven by higher crude oil prices and a rise in refining margins.
“We expect them to remain elevated even if the Middle East conflict ends,” the duo said in the bank’s Pacific Insight report obtained by The Fiji Times.
“The ongoing control of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran will keep oil flows constrained and should see crude oil prices stay near the $US90/bbl level through to the end of the year.
“Hence, we think Fiji’s mineral fuel imports are likely to hit an all-time high of $2,000m in 2026, pushing the current account deficit to $1,500m from $1,039m in 2025.”
Dr Sen and Mr Hynes said this deficit would be paid for by capital inflows and via a drawdown on the nation’s foreign reserves. “Despite the drawdown, we still see Fiji carrying sufficient buffer of foreign reserves.
“We don’t envisage any significant changes to exchange control rules and regulations on capital outflows.”
The report stated that the risk of ongoing attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control would likely see a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices.
“Moreover, heavily depleted inventories have significantly reduced the oil market’s buffer against future supply disruptions.
“This should keep Brent crude above $US90/bbl for the remainder of 2026.
“Combined with elevated shipping costs, this will likely push up Fiji’s fuel imports to $FJ2,000m in 2026, 25.9 per cent higher than in 2025 and the current account deficit to $FJ1,500m.”
