A strong El Niño is expected to persist for the remainder of 2026, with the Fiji Meteorological Service forecasting cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures across much of Fiji’s waters between August and October.
In its latest Fiji Ocean Outlook, the Fiji Met Service says below-normal sea surface temperatures are likely around the Western and Central divisions, Kadavu and the southern Lau Group, despite above-normal temperatures being recorded across Fiji’s waters during June.
The report says the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is also expected to shift south of its normal position, just outside Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone, a movement that can influence the distribution of skipjack tuna across the Pacific.
Despite the ongoing El Niño, the outlook brings positive news for Fiji’s reefs, with the four, eight and 12-week coral bleaching outlook remaining at “No Stress” across Fiji and Rotuma.
The Met Service also forecasts below-normal sea levels across most of the Fiji Group during the August to October period, while Rotuma is expected to experience near-normal sea levels.
The report notes that El Niño conditions are typically associated with reduced rainfall in Fiji, often increasing the likelihood of prolonged dry conditions across the country.
