Reserve Bank of Fiji Governor Ariff Ali has warned that Fiji is entering a period of heightened economic uncertainty and volatility, driven by global events, rising fuel prices and domestic challenges affecting business confidence and growth.
Speaking at the Dialogue Fiji-organised State of the Fiji Economy 2026 Dialogue in Suva, Mr Ali said the country’s economic environment had become increasingly unpredictable.
“The way I characterise where we are right now is that we are really in a period of uncertainty and volatility. This is the opposite of stability,” Mr Ali said.
He told participants that Fiji was being affected by international developments beyond its control, particularly geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global energy markets.
“What is happening in the states of homes is impacting us, and we have no control.”
Mr Ali said many people were underestimating the true extent of fuel price increases affecting countries in the region.
“Most people think that the price of crude oil has gone up from about US$68 before the war to around US$98 now, but that’s not the truth.”
He explained that many Asian buyers were paying significantly more than benchmark market prices.
“In the Asian market, most people are buying crude oil at somewhere between 20 and 50 per cent more than what is the market price. That’s why the price of diesel and fuel have gone up more than what you see in terms of the global crude oil prices.”
The Governor warned that higher fuel prices would eventually flow through every sector of the economy.
“Transportation and fuel are the lifeblood of the economy, just like blood supply, so it will impact us.”
Mr Ali said the Government’s capacity to stimulate growth was constrained, making private sector investment increasingly important.
“I feel that the only option to grow out of this crisis, out of this situation, is the private sector.”
“Government has very little ammunition.”
He also highlighted concerns repeatedly raised by businesses regarding the ease of doing business in Fiji, saying regulatory processes and approval delays were affecting investor confidence.
“Based on our surveys, there are a number of issues that are impacting the private sector. One, and we have talked about for a long time, is ease of doing business.”
Mr Ali said investors frequently cited delays involving regulatory agencies and government departments as obstacles to investment and economic expansion.
He urged policymakers and agencies to address these concerns, arguing that improving the business environment would be critical if Fiji is to navigate the current uncertainty and maintain economic growth.
“This is something that we really need to work on,” he said.
