FIJI has no visible “Plan B” in place to address what could possibly be another COVID-like crash of the tourism sector when the alarmingly high global jet fuel prices start to bite into the operations and viability of Fiji’s national airline Fiji Airways.
This is the view of regular Fiji Times columnist and academic, former Aviation Meteorologist for British Aerospace and the Royal Saudi Air Force Dr Sushil K Sharma, who has penned another hard-hitting Op-ed on the doubling of jet fuel prices and implications to Fiji’s vulnerable tourism-dependent economy (see pages 14,15).
Historical aviation disruption
“Multiple international assessments now describe the Middle East crisis as the largest aviation disruption since COVID-19, one of the biggest global supply shocks since the pandemic (COVID-19) and an economic event comparable in scale to COVID-19’s impact on travel, fuel markets and fuel supply chains,” Dr Sharma said in an interview with this newspaper.
“War pricing, broken supply chains and a tourism-dependent economy with no second plan — the jet fuel crisis is not an airline problem, it is Fiji’s problem.”
Jet fuel price action
The stark reality faced by Fiji Airways can be gauged from IATA’s jet fuel price monitor, which shows jet fuel prices at a weekly average of $US175 ($F387) a barrel on March 13, 2026, two weeks into the Israeli-US/Iran war, and hitting $US209 ($F462) a barrel on the week ended April 3, 2026, dropping slightly to a weekly average of $US197.83 ($F437.95) a barrel on April 10. “That is the global average price per barrel of Jet A-1 aviation fuel recorded by the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor in early April 2026, sourced through S&P Global’s Platts assessment platform,” Dr Sharma said.
“IATA had forecast $US88 ($F194) a barrel for 2026. That projection was rendered obsolete by mid March, when wartime volatility drove prices more than 131 per cent above the baseline. In practical terms, the industry went from planning around a stable, single digit inflation environment to confronting a sudden, system wide fuel shock.
“Airlines that had budgeted for $US88 ($F194) were instead facing prices well above $US200 ($F442) — a structural break that no model, hedge book, or annual operating plan had anticipated.
“When a forecast is overtaken by a 131 percent surge in a matter of weeks, it’s not a deviation — it’s a collapse of the underlying assumptions. That’s why the industry is now in crisis management mode rather than normal commercial planning.”
Supply shocks kicking in
Across the world’s major markets, jet fuel prices are now hitting record highs against the backdrop of an escalating global supply shock.
The International Energy Agency’s latest Oil Market Report, released on April 14, shows global oil supply collapsing by 10.1 million barrels a day to just 97 million barrels a day in March — the steepest monthly disruption ever recorded.
The IEA attributes the fall to sustained attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East and the effective shutdown of tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, creating what it describes as “the largest disruption in history.”
A dangerous ‘silent’ crisis
As airlines around the world moved quickly — cutting routes, trimming capacity, or imposing fuel surcharges — Fiji Airways adopted a wait-and-see stance, with no immediate plans to reduce flights or adjust its network.
Tourism Minister Viliame Gavoka reinforced that position at the South Pacific Tourism Exchange in Nadi, assuring delegates that Fiji Airways would not withdraw from any of its international or regional routes.
A Tourism Action Group (TAG) in now active but has offered litte by way of updates.
Dr Sharma said this seeming lack of urgency has created a false sense of security — the impression that everything is fine when global markets are signalling the opposite.
“This is exactly why this crisis is so dangerous — it is silent. COVID announced itself with sirens and lockdowns. This one moves quietly through supply chains, fuel shortages, flight cancellations and price shocks. We do not hear explosions, but the economic damage is already detonating beneath us,” he said.Fiji Airway last week announced cutbacks to its flight services to Brisbane and Dallas,its first “direct response to substantially higher fuel prices and the current geopolitical environment.”
Pilot-forecaster consultation
Dr Sharma, a World Meteorological Organisation–accredited Class 1 Professional Meteorologist, called for a return to direct pilot–forecaster consultations and post flight debrief between airline captains and the national weather office.
He said this would strengthen Fiji Airways’ fuel management strategy, particularly in an environment where upper air wind fields can vary dramatically, with jet stream winds sometimes exceeding 200 knots.
Dr Sharma noted that airlines must maximise strong tailwinds and avoid unnecessary headwinds, but this requires more than generic, pre processed global forecast data from Washington and London. He said real time assimilation of actual flight condition data aloft is essential if airlines are to achieve meaningful fuel savings.
