ANZ senior Pacific economist Dr Kishti Sen projects Fiji’s 2026 economic growth will outpace the Government’s 1.5 per cent “worst-case” budget projection.
Dr Sen said they are forecasting real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.7 per cent this year and 2027, driven by record remittances, tourism and rising agricultural exports.
In his authored Pacific Insight publication released this month, he said the national budget had assumed a worst-case set of economic assumptions to project revenue.
He said the forecasts assumed real GDP growth of 1.5 per cent in 2026 with nominal GDP rising of 4 per cent versus baseline assumptions of 3 per cent and 5.5 per cent, respectively, for this year.
He added the worst-case scenario assumed a “period of heightened external and domestic challenges, including weaker global growth, natural disasters and lower investor confidence”.
“We forecast real GDP growth will come in stronger than the budget is forecasting,” Dr Sen said.
“The global economy has been resilient to the oil price shock, and we expect world GDP to increase by 3.1 per cent this year strengthening to 3.4 per cent in 2027.
“In addition, Fiji has a stabilising factor, in the form of overseas remittances, which help to stabilise household consumption.”
Dr Sen said during natural disasters and the global COVID-19 pandemic, friends and families working abroad often sent part of their earnings back to Fiji.
He said remittances this year were tracking higher than the record $FJ1,200m receipts in 2025.
“In addition, tourists are still coming to Fiji in large numbers, with visitor arrivals up 2.3 per cent on last year, helping sustain jobs in the tourism industry.
“Farmers are also receiving good returns on agricultural produce, with export revenue up 5 per cent on last year.
“So, consumer demand is still well supported and private investment is holding up well.
“We are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.7 per cent in 2026 and 2027 before strengthening to 3.2 per cent in 2028.”
Mr Sen said if realised, government revenue would come in higher than budgeted, which should then result in a lower deficit and debt for the 2026-27 fiscal year.
