A technical assessment of the Fiji Electoral Law Reform Commission’s proposed electoral system has concluded that the model is “not a workable proportional electoral system”, warning it contains fundamental mathematical flaws that could undermine election results.
In the 13-page assessment prepared by Dialogue Fiji Executive Director Nilesh Lal, the proposed Proportional Open List Constituency System (POLCS) is described as “mathematically incomplete, internally contradictory and incapable of reliably delivering its central promise of national proportionality.”
The report argues the proposal’s central formula—calculating list seats by subtracting constituency seats from a party’s overall entitlement—fails whenever a party wins more constituency seats than its share of the national vote justifies.
Using a hypothetical example, the assessment states that if a party won all 50 constituency seats with just 51 per cent of the national vote, it would be entitled to only about 36 seats under proportional representation.
The formula would therefore require the party to receive minus 14 MPs, something the report says is mathematically impossible.
According to the assessment, only three outcomes would then be possible: remove elected constituency MPs, abandon proportional representation, or significantly increase the size of Parliament through “overhang” and levelling seats.
It says none of those solutions is explained in the proposal.
The report also criticises the proposed ratio of 50 constituency seats and only 21 compensatory list seats, saying it gives far too much weight to first-past-the-post elections before proportionality is considered.
It argues that New Zealand’s MMP system uses a much safer electorate-to-list ratio, whereas Fiji’s proposed 70:30 split creates a much greater risk of disproportional election outcomes.
The assessment concludes that unless a detailed overhang mechanism exists but has not been published, the proposal cannot guarantee proportional representation despite claims that it would.
