THE Pacific and Asian countries are especially vulnerable to the long standing impacts of the current Super El Nino.
An assessment by Asian Development Bank economist Roshen Fernando explains why 2027 maybe a year when global economies will feel the full brunt of this global phenomenon.
“El Niño is already at record strength for this time of year and still building,” he said.
“It is expected to peak around November, with a high chance of becoming the strongest on record. Most attention will focus on the coming months: failed rains, heatwaves, and rising rice and cooking oil prices but the bigger economic story comes later.
“El Niño hits hardest in the year after it forms, putting 2027 in the firing line. The usual view is that it delivers a sharp but brief blow to growth, after which economies bounce back. In most Southeast Asian economies, farming accounts for 13 per cent to 30 per cent of output and 40 percent to 68 per cent of jobs.
“When harvests fail, poor rural households and women are hit hardest and take the longest to recover.
“A typical El Niño adds as much as one percentage point to inflation, and more where food makes up a third to almost half of the prices tracked to measure inflation.”
“Recovery will be harder this time.” He said many global economies carried heavy debt after the pandemic, and countries vulnerable to natural hazards and changing weather patterns already pay more to borrow.
“Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict, the war in Ukraine, and Red Sea shipping disruptions are straining the food, energy, and freight markets that El Niño will hit.”
The economists, however, added the silver lining was that government have had months to prepare for the wide reaching impacts.
