THE future of childhood hangs in the balance if urgent action is not taken to safeguard children’s rights in a changing world.
According to a statement released on World Children’s Day (Wednesday, November 20), UNICEF noted how three major global forces or megatrends – demographic change, climate and environmental crises, and breakthrough technologies – will impact children’s lives by 2050 and beyond by providing key indications of the challenges and opportunities children may face in the future.
“Children are experiencing a myriad of crises, from climate shocks to online dangers, and these are set to intensify in the years to come,” said UNICEF executive director Catherine Russell.
“The projections in this report demonstrate that the decisions world leaders make today, or fail to make, define the world children will inherit.
“Creating a better future in 2050 will require more than just an imagination, it requires action.
“Decades of progress, particularly for girls, are under threat.”
By the 2050s, there will be an increase to approximately 1.3 million children living in 14 Pacific Island countries – Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Republic of Marshall Islands, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu (according to the SPC Pacific Data Hub Mid-Year Population Estimates 2050).
These demographic shifts present both opportunities and challenges.
While a larger number of children and youth will be the backbone for achieving the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, the Pacific Island nations, increasingly under pressure to expand delivery of essential social services, need to prioritise their investment in children so that they can survive, thrive, and reach their full potential.
Demographic transition
By 2050, UNICEF has predicted the number of children under-18 in the world will be roughly the same as today, about 2.3 billion. However, depending on future patterns of fertility, mortality and international migration, the eventual number may actually lie between 1.7b and 3b.
Meanwhile, the adult population is projected to grow to around 7.5b in the 2050s.
Globally, the population of older persons, and the share of older persons, will grow.
By 2050, the number of people over the age of 65 will have reached about 1.6b – this demographic transition is more than double the figure from 2021 (761m), with the share rising from 1 in 10 people to 1 in 6.9
The stable projections of the total number of children conceal a regional shift. In the 2000s, the largest child populations were in South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and Caribbean.
In the 2050s, however, most of the world’s children will live in Eastern and Southern Africa, West and Central Africa and South Asia, regions that currently contain most of the world’s poorest countries.
By the 2050s, more than a third of the world’s children will live in four countries: China, India, Nigeria and Pakistan, and just 10 countries will be home to half of the world’s children.
Nonetheless, the number of children will have dropped by about 106m in India and by 203m in China.
The climate and environmental crises
With humanity breaching critical ecological limits, children now are coping with a more unpredictable, hazardous environment than children of any previous generation.
Amid climate destabilisation, biodiversity and widespread pollution, the world faces a triple planetary crisis, with risks that will only intensify in the future.
Before they take their first breath, children are impacted by their environment. Their developing brains, lungs and immune systems are uniquely susceptible to pollution, disease and extreme weather.
As they grow, every realm of children’s lives – from education to nutrition, from safety and security to mental health – is shaped by the climate and environment.
Approximately 1b children – nearly half of the world’s children – live in countries that face high risk of climate and environmental hazards.
Air pollution ranks as the second leading risk factor for death in children under the age of five years old.
Global warming has led to rising sea levels, a particular hazard for small island developing states.
Access to safe drinking water is at ever-increasing risk, especially for the most vulnerable children.
Heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, tropical storms and biodiversity loss pose additional threats.
As a result, few children in the world live free of mounting climate and environmental risks.
Environmental degradation and systemic shifts are also creating new interactions between people and the environment.
Signals of this change include the potential for harmful chemicals and materials to impact health, immune function and fertility, emerging zoonotic diseases and higher risk of pandemics, and eco-anxiety among children and young people that gives rise to isolation and loneliness.
Failing to protect children from the climate and ecological crises is a violation of their rights, as affirmed by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child in General Comment.
The committee recognises climate and environmental hazards as “an urgent and systemic threat to children’s rights”, and affirms children’s right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment.
Children’s access to clean water is also at risk.
Rising floodwaters can damage infrastructure, leading to contaminated water supplies and increases in waterborne diseases, which represent a leading cause of death among children under the age of five.
Extreme weather also directly affects children’s access to a diverse, healthy diet.
For children and pregnant women, lack of diet diversity and food scarcity can lead to a greater risk of disease. It is also linked to poor developmental outcomes in children.
Food insecurity is predicted to increase as the climate crisis worsens.
Air pollution is especially harmful for children, and its effects can last a lifetime.
Scientific evidence shows that air pollution can contribute to adverse birth outcomes, infant mortality, damaged lungs, asthma and cancer, and it is linked to the risk of neurological disorders and childhood obesity.
Frontier technology
Connectivity and digital skills, when used correctly in learning environments, could equip millions for future jobs, boosting economies and breaking generational cycles of inequality.
AI and neurotechnology could drive transformations in education and health care.
New vaccines promise protection from deadly diseases and green tech offers ways to mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis.
These are only a few examples of the opportunities frontier technologies can offer, but there are also risks such as invasion of privacy, exposure to harmful content and misuse of personal information.
Both the opportunities and risks demonstrate why we must take a future-focused approach to realising child rights.
To be unconnected in a digital world is to be deprived of opportunities in the present and potential in the future.
In Europe, an estimated 90 per cent of jobs require basic digital skills, in addition to basic literacy and numeracy.
By 2030, more than 230m jobs in sub-Saharan Africa will require digital skills.
Soft skills like critical thinking, reasoning and socio-emotional skills will also be key; these are skills that machines will not have.
Children need to learn how to safely leverage such tools from an early age, both for their ongoing education and future work prospects.
Children who can spend more time online and engage in a wider range of online activities develop better digital skills, yet most young people in low- and middle-income countries are not connected, have limited digital skills and do not own a mobile phone.
Overall, more than 95 per cent of people in high-income countries are connected to the internet, compared with barely 26 per cent in low-income countries.
Infrastructure limitations, high costs and permission barriers continue to impede progress.
The divide is particularly stark for certain groups: in low-income countries, nine out of 10 girls and young women aged 15-24 are offline.
Even in high-income countries, adolescents aged 15-16 in the poorest households are nine times more likely to be unconnected than their wealthier peers.
The internet cannot be accessed without electricity. Absent or unreliable electricity and inadequate infrastructure therefore exacerbate the digital divide.
In Africa, 63 per cent of the population owns a mobile phone but only 37 per cent uses the internet.
Weak infrastructure (lack of electricity or signal), costs (of data and devices), the need to share devices and not having an adult’s permission to use the internet, especially for children, continue to represent persistent barriers to connectivity.
“World Children’s Day is a moment for leaders to demonstrate their commitment to the rights and wellbeing of every child,” Ms Russell said.
“We can shape a better future for tomorrow’s children, and we have to get started today.”
