Fiji could be heading into a drier-than-normal second half of the year, with climate experts warning that an El Niño event is increasingly likely to develop in the coming months.
The Fiji Meteorological Service has placed the country under an El Niño Watch, saying both oceanic and atmospheric conditions are showing signs consistent with the climate phenomenon.
According to the latest Fiji Climate Outlook for June to November 2026, most global climate models now favour the development of El Niño during the June to August period.
If the event develops, Fiji can expect generally drier conditions, particularly during the dry season.
The outlook forecasts normal or below-normal rainfall across the Fiji Group, including Rotuma, throughout June, with similar conditions expected to continue during the June to August and September to November periods.
The report also indicates that temperatures are likely to remain warmer than usual in Rotuma, with both maximum and minimum temperatures expected to be above normal. Across the rest of Fiji, temperatures are forecast to remain near normal.
While El Niño is typically associated with reduced rainfall in Fiji, forecasters caution that no two events are identical and impacts can vary from one episode to another.
The developing climate pattern is likely to be closely monitored by farmers, water authorities and disaster management agencies, given the potential implications for agriculture, water resources and wildfire risks.
Meteorologists say the coming months will provide a clearer indication of whether El Niño conditions fully establish and how strongly they may influence weather patterns across the country.
For now, Fiji remains on alert as the Pacific climate system shows increasing signs of shifting towards an El Niño phase.
