Visitor arrivals this year is expected to remain broadly flat despite a strong start to the year.
Fiji’s tourism sector recorded a strong visitor arrival in the first quarter of this year with total arrivals of 196,977 from January to March – an increase of 7.0 per cent year on year, supported by robust outcomes across all three months.
Westpac Fiji’s senior economist Shamal Chand said monthly growth had strengthened through the quarter, rising from 0.3 per cent year on year in January to 9.6 pe cent in February, and 12.4 per cent in March.
He said March recorded the highest visitor arrivals ever for the month, suggesting demand regained momentum following the seasonal slowdown in February.
However, he added the outlook expected arrivals to plateau in light of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and associated ripple effects.
“While tourism sector momentum was strong in early 2026, the outlook for the remainder of the year is becoming more challenging,” Mr Chand said in the Westpac Wave publication.
“Elevated jet fuel prices, coupled with risks of fuel supply disruptions linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, present significant headwinds for airline operators and the wider tourism sector.”
Mr Chand said those pressures had already begun to affect flight capacity.
He noted national airline Fiji Airways’ announcement of temporary suspension of four services across two international routes – Nadi-Brisbane route from late April and Tuesday services on the Dallas-Nadi route between and mid-June.
He said the airline was preparing for a prolonged period of elevated operating expenses, considering fuel remaining its single largest cost.
“The national airline is expected to face higher operating costs, which will weigh on its margins.
“The national airline may pursue further route consolidation if access to jet fuel at offshore airports becomes constrained, as countries increasingly prioritise domestic supply.”
Mr Chand said under their baseline scenario, those factors pointed to flat visitor arrivals for this year, with upside risk should fuel prices ease and operational disruptions proved limited.
