FIJI’S tourism sector outlook is still expected to hold up amid all the uncertainty and looming risks.
However, Westpac Fiji senior economist Shamal Chand said that level would be below previous expectations.
Fiji is approaching the peak tourism season in July this year, driven by the Australian and New Zealand winter season, together with school breaks.
In its latest ‘Westpac Wave’ economic update released this week, Mr Chand said one of the concerning trends they noted into 2025 was the drop in tourist arrivals, even compared to the normal seasonal standard.
While he noted that visitor arrivals remained above pre-pandemic levels, added that a number of scenarios they had run pointed to decline in the number of visitor arrivals this year.
“We are cautiously optimistic on visitor arrivals outlook and assume no growth. The reason we are not only overly pessimistic is because similar events unfolded last year with a weaker two-months at the start, but arrivals picked up rapidly later as peak months got nearer,” Mr Chand said.
However, he said the threat of global economic recession was not in last year’s equation.
Mr Chand said the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs on Fiji’s tourism source markets, threat of looming recession and downward revised growth outlook did not help the tourism industry.
“We are monitoring these events unfolding on the global stage and their impact on the domestic economy.”
On the positive side, Mr Chand said there had been an increase in the number of passengers transiting through Fiji.
In the first quarter of 2025, a total of 89,014 passengers were in transit, up 8.6 per cent compared to the 81,966 passengers in transit during the same period last year.
Last month, visitor arrivals fell to 63,842; and arrivals from two of Fiji’s major source markets fell, especially Australian arrivals falling 17.4 per cent to 26,434, and New Zealand arrivals fell 16.3 per cent to 10,885.
US arrivals have held up, rising 18.7 per cent to 10,276 in March, “possibly” because of new direct flights to Dallas.
“The month of February is the weakest for tourism activity in Fiji, hence, a pick-up is expected as we approach the peak, but whether it will be above or below the prior years’ numbers in the remaining three quarters is yet to be seen,” Mr Chand said.
He said the departure tax was expected to be increased to $200 from August 1 this year as announced in the last national budget. He added the Government might consider delaying the full reinstatement of the departure tax as a relief to the industry.
Deputy PM and Minister for Trade Manoa Kamikamica said Government’s support for tourism remained as a pillar for the country’s economy, noting its symbiotic role in the broader national development agenda.
He said there were challenges of the global market but stressed Fiji’s resilience and competitive edge in offering authentic experiences.
Tourism Fiji CEO Brent Hill also shared a confident outlook for the industry despite early-year softness in visitor numbers.
With Fiji welcoming nearly one million arrivals and 80,000-plus cruise passengers last year, Mr Kamikamica and Mr Hill agreed infrastructure investment was essential to sustain momentum and maintain Fiji’s standing as a world-class destination.
Note: This article was first published on the print version of the Fiji Times dated April 25, 2025
