Fiji will be exposed to between five and seven severe tropical cyclones above Category 3 in the 2023-2024 cyclone season, the Fiji Meteorological Service said in their 2023-24 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook yesterday.
In total, Fiji Met is forecasting eight to 14 tropical cyclones likely in the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre Area of Responsibility(AoR) between November 2023 and April 2024.
“On average, around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi— AoR a season. Thus, this season is predicted to have above average TC activity,” Fiji Met said.
“Around four TCs per season on average affect West of the Dateline in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR and around three to the East. This season, four to six TCs are expected to affect West of the Dateline, which means near average or above average TC risk.
“To the East, six to nine TCs are likely, which is an above average risk. “Three severe TCs, that is, Category three or higher intensity, on average affect the RSMC Nadi—TCC AoR a season. This season is likely to have five to seven severe TCs, which is an above average risk.”
Fiji Met said while cyclone season in the region is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in October and May and rarely in September and June.
“Therefore, out-of-season TCs cannot be ruled out.
“The peak TC season in the RMSC—Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January and March, but TCs can form at any time during the season.”
