THE Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) has projected lesser tropical cyclones in Fiji and the Pacific but these will be more intense in power.
During her presentation at the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Symposium, FMS scientific officer Arieta Baleisolomone said the projections were reached from global model simulations using fine resolutions.
“Tropical cyclone numbers are likely to decline in the Pacific over the 21st century,” Ms Baleisolomone said.
“However, global model simulations using fine resolution show an increase in proportion in the more severe cyclone.
“Projected changes for Fiji are warmer temperatures, wetter wet season and dryer dry season, heavy rainfall will get more intense and fewer tropical cyclones but more intense.”
She said there had been a decrease in frequency in the number of tropical cyclones in the past — the most active periods being in late 70s to the early 1990s.
“In terms of temperature projections, we have the highest confidence that temperatures will continue to rise in the 21st century. These warming issues will be consistent with the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations. All local climate models agree on increase in temperatures.”
Ms Baleisolomone was making a presentation on Fiji’s current climate variability, change and future projections at the symposium which was held at Suva’s Devos on the Park.
