FIJI’S already slowing growth trajectory is now fully exposed to the global economic fallouts from the war in the Middle East, hampering Government’s ability to finance longstanding structural challenges.And the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Fiji’s biggest multilateral development bank partner, is forecasting a soft landing, with GDP growth barely breaking the three per cent market this year and next year.
The ADB launched its flagship Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026 in Suva yesterday, outlining its economic outlook for its member countries in Asia and the Pacific.
For Fiji, while the economy will continue to grow, the duration of the Middle East crisis will be the major deciding factor of whether or not we can improve on that growth.
The ADO April 2026 forecasts Fiji’s GDP growth “to moderate to 2.9 per cent in 2026 and 2.7 per cent in 2027” as “slowing trends in tourism markets are expected to persist amid challenging external conditions while a wait-and-see approach by investors ahead of the upcoming general elections dampens construction growth.
“The Middle East crisis has increased external uncertainties and energy price risks,” ADB stated
“A more prolonged escalation could further impact Fiji’s growth through higher prices, shipping disruptions and financial volatility, which ADB will continue to monitor closely.
“The current unstable external environment poses risks to domestic resources needed to finance longstanding structural challenges, particularly non communicable diseases (NCDs), which account for 80 per cent of deaths and cost Fiji approximately $263 million a year.”
Last month, ADB president Masato Kanda announced a financial support package to help its developing member countries (DMCs) mitigate the economic and financial impacts resulting from the Middle East conflict.
This includes rapid, flexible, and scalable assistance to help countries manage immediate pressures and strengthen long-term resilience, notably fast-disbursing budget support and trade and supply chain finance to secure the import of essential goods, now including oil, according to ADB.
