FIJI is staring at an economic recession in the face if the war in the Middle East drags on for longer than six months.
This was among the possible scenarios outlined by Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF) governor Ariff Ali at yesterday’s launch of the Asian Development Bank’s flagship publication, the Asian Development Outlook April 2026.
While deliberating on the impact of the Middle East war – now into its second month – on Fiji’s economy, Mr Ali outlined three scenarios:
“If the war ends tomorrow, and assuming they all agree on everything, I still feel the Fijian economy will contract by somewhere between half a per cent to one per cent.
“If the war drags for another three months, I see the economic growth at half or even lower. That means it will fall from three (per cent) to more closer to one per cent. But if it extends into anything beyond six months, I’m worried that we may not have a growth this year unless a miracle happens.”
Mr Ali is projecting inflation at around 5 per cent this year because of the prevailing high fuel prices.
