FOR the past two weeks the public have seen medal tallies as in Table 1, with Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Tahiti and Fiji in that order. Such crude rankings can be quite misleading
The number of medals won typically depends on total population, how rich the country and its sports facilities are, the range of sports played and medals per sport, the “sporting culture”, individual brilliance and the “host country” effect.
No two countries in the Pacific are similar by these criteria.
PNG with seven million ought to do better than Fiji (880,000) and miles better than Niue with a mere 1000 people.
New Caledonia and Tahiti, both French territories with better sports facilities, ought to do better than the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu or Kiribati.
For the 2015 PG, full credit has to be given to PNG, as PG committee chairman Vidya Lakhan did for mounting an extremely successful PG, with a spectacular opening, which showcased the cultures of different provinces. Contrary to all the pre-games fears, no violence or crime marred the event.
There is just a “small matter of rankings”.
Ranking by total medals
The media usually ranks countries by “gold medals won’, but a fairer way is by “total medals won” which gives silver and bronze medal winners fair recognition.
Better than that is a “total points” system which gives higher values to gold and silver, for example, four for each gold, two to silver and one to bronze, but this gives almost the same rankings as “total medals won” (Table 1).
Table 1 gives the ranking by “total medals won” in the 2015 PG, excluding Australia and NZ (seen below).
Table 1 suggests the top country is Papua New Guinea (217 medals), then a large drop to New Caledonia (165 medals), and another drop to Fiji (114) and Tahiti (113).
But to be fair, one should allow for the different populations.
Ranking by medals
per population
By the criterion of “total medals per thousand population”, the real champions are the smallest countries as given by Table 1 (which gives the most recent populations in thousands).
1. Norfolk Island
2, Cook Islands
3 Nauru
4. Niue
Fiji and PNG are both towards the bottom as also are the really under-performing countries, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.
Most ordinary Pacific people have no idea how small are the populations of Niue, or Norfolk Island, Tuvalu or Nauru, which would be mere villages in the larger countries.
PNG alone (seven million) has more than a half of the total population of all the PG countries combined (10 million).
I have a table in my article on my website (NarseyOnFiji) that shows that these top countries have had similar ranks in all the previous Pacific Games.
Take away the “wealth factor” of “mother” countries like Australia, France and NZ, then the real Pacific Games champion is Nauru, which paradoxically, also has one of the highest rates of NCDs in the Pacific.
‘Host country’ effect
It has been statistically proven in the Olympics and Commonwealth results that the “host country” does much better than usual, just as PNG has done for 2015.
The host country can enter more athletes because of the cost savings, and they usually perform better with the support of the “home crowds”.
Just for the three most successful countries, Graph 1 shows “per cent of total medals won” from 1991 to 2015 (full table on my website article NarseyOnFiji).
All three had their highest percentages won when they were “host countries” before going down to their usual levels:
Fiji with 23 per cent in 2003 (then down to 14 per cent this year)
New Caledonia with 32 per cent in 2011 (down to 20 per cent this year)
PNG with 20 per cent in 1991, then gradually declining to 10 per cent in 2003, before rising to a peak of 26 per cent this year.
Expect PNG’s percentage of medals won to be lower in future years, but not as much given its huge population which can now take advantage of the improved sports facilities.
While the large cash bonuses given by the PNG Government (10,000 kina for gold medals) may not have done much for 2015, it probably will in future games. Is this fair to the other poor Pacific Island countries?
On my website article is data which shows that Tahiti won a high 25 per cent when host in 1995, but the percentage declined thereafter to 14 per cent.
Samoa won 14 per cent as host in 2007, but this declined to 6 per cent now.
Guam won 7 per cent of total medals in 1991, but dropped to just 2 per cent now.
For the 2015 Pacific Games, all countries would have won more medals if Australia and NZ had not been included.
Did Fiji do poorly?
Some members of the Fiji public have been complaining about the supposed “poor” performance of Fiji in the 2015 PG, compared with 2003.
The 2003 Fiji performance should not be taken as the benchmark since the “host country” effect was in play.
Table 3 gives the performances of all the countries for the different years and the average for all these games, by “percentages of total medals won” (excluding Australia and NZ in 2015).
Fiji’s performance in 2015 was only slightly less than in 2011, and a little bit worse than the average.
So also was New Caledonia’s performance in 2015 a bit below her average, but by the long-term average, it is still by far the best performer by this criterion.
But note that the Pacific Games medal tally is a “zero sum game”. If some countries’ share goes up for whatever reason, other countries’ share must go down, since there is a fixed number of medals for each game.
Expect all countries’ shares to go down over the next 20 years, as PNG, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu all realise their full potential.
‘Bad experiment’
including Australia and NZ
The inclusion of Australia and NZ in the 2015 South Pacific Games for rugby sevens, sailing, tae kwan do and weightlifting, was not a good experiment, from athletes’ and the smaller countries’ point of view.
I doubt if their performance was improved in any great way, while 67 Pacific athletes were denied medals.
With some assistance from Lyndall Fisher (Fiji’s FASANOC) who gave me some events results available on the internet (not the full results) I estimate the extra medals which countries would have earned as follows:
PNG 17 more = (7G, 7S , 3B);
Tahiti 16 more = (5G, 4S, 7B);
Fiji 14 more = (7S, 7B); and
NC eight more = (2G, 5S, 1B)
Smaller countries would have really valued the extra medals and the boost to their confidence:
Samoa (2G); Guam (1G, 1S, 2B); Wallis and Futuna (2S, 1B); Tonga (4S); Marshall Is (7S), Kiribati (3S, 5B); and American Samoa (4B).
No Commonwealth Games ever invites great athletes from the US or great swimmers from China to “improve their own athletes’ performance”.
The great advantage of the Pacific Games is that our athletes compete with others of a similar standard, giving most a reasonable chance to win a medal, which they cannot have against the best Australian or NZ athletes.
If Australia and NZ were really genuine about helping Pacific athletes lift their standards, they ought to annually invite large numbers of them to Australian and NZ national games, and pay for their participation, easily paid for out of their wasted aid funds in the Pacific.
The lessons for PNG
While the games were a great success, the TV coverage indicates that many events were poorly attended, suggesting the sporting culture in this nation of more than 7 million people is a very thin layer, mostly among the urban peoples, while the rural areas are inevitably deprived.
With PNG bidding to hold a future Commonwealth Games, the PNG politicians should note the host country always uses up massive amounts of taxpayers’ resources, but the brand new sports facilities remain largely underutilised after the games are over.
As was the case with the recent FIFA World Cup in South Africa, social commentators lamented the same resources could have been used to improve health, education and poverty alleviation measures needed far more than the politicians enjoying two weeks of nationalistic flag waving confined to the Capital City.
If PNG does go ahead, then they must improve the rural facilities and involvement in sports, especially in the other towns such as Lae, Arawa (in Boungainville) and Madang.
Lessons for Tonga
With the 2019 Pacific Games supposed to be held in Tonga, there is already some opposition with worries that Tonga does not have the required resources.
While Tonga does have its own royalty and “does not have to fly in a prince” to open the games, that is no use to the athletes.
Far more worrying is the statement by one Tongan spokesman in Moresby that “We will conduct the games within our means and with the resources we have at home.”
This view should be totally rejected by the Pacific Games countries.
Politicians’ nationalistic pride at holding the Pacific Games, must not be allowed to sacrifice the interests of the thousands of athletes who should be given the opportunity to compete in all the games normally played.
For athletes, the PG provides a most important long-term continuing benchmark, every four years, not provided by the Commonwealth or Olympic Games, for which few qualify.
Note that allegation have been made that in the 2015 PG, three sports were deliberately left out by the host country because some countries (like New Caledonia) excelled in them. This should not be allowed to happen. The Pacific Games must be “full scale”.
The Tongan sports authorities should be reminded that holding the Pacific Games in 2019 will increase the percentage of medals won in that year alone, as the “host country effect”, but the impact will not be sustainable.
To minimise the burden on Tongan taxpayers, Australia, NZ and China should be requested to build the necessary facilities, with some sports and facilities spread to the other main island, Vavau.
Alternatively, Tonga could share the 2019 Games with Samoa.
The OSIC Project:
Any real improvements?
Medal results and rankings are “zero sum games” because there is a fixed number of medals to be shared: if some countries win more than usual, then others must win less.
Of course, some countries (like PNG or Solomon Is) will have a long-term trend of increasing shares of medals, while others decline.
But the real question for athletes, coaches and administrators is: are athletes’ performances improving by international standards? Are they running or swimming faster, throwing further or lifting more?
To answer that, the games administrators must, as a priority, put together all their historical records collected at one point, and freely available to all through an online database.
Such a project is underway at the moment at the Oceania Sports Information Centre (OSIC) based at the University of the South Pacific’s library and managed by USP sports librarian, Martin Burrows, who should be given every assistance by the PG countries.
Also on the databases should be the records for neighbours Australia and NZ, the Commonwealth Games, the Olympics and World events.
On the website can also be the kinds of analysis that I have presented in this article (and on my website NarseyOnFiji) similar to what can be found for the Olympics such as “total medals won per GDP”.
A new Pacific Game:
The Coconut Races
Of course, countries such as Australia, US and China usually win more medals in sports for which they have historically had appropriate facilities, such as athletics tracks and swimming pools, which poor Pacific countries, especially in rural areas, do not have.
But all Pacific people have coconut trees (the “tree of life”) which they have been climbing for thousands of years, to obtain food, drink, building materials, household utensils, etc.
To “level the playing field” with the developed countries, PG organisers should introduce “the coconut races” at the next Pacific Games.
Take the time from “Go” to climb a coconut tree of a fixed height until one coconut hits the ground.
What about a “coconut triathlon” climbing, picking, husking, and cracking the coconut?
Once established here, Pacific countries could then demand that the “coconut races” be introduced to the Commonwealth Games and the Olympics.
Just as Pacific countries have had to build athletics tracks and swimming pools, the developed countries can manufacture their own artificial coconut trees and coconuts for practice.
Or, they can import them from us.
Or come to our countries to practice, just as Winter Olympics skiers go looking for snow.
* The views expressed are that of the author and not this newspaper.
