LATEST statistics released last week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) have revealed a 28.1 percent drop in the number of Fijians migrating into Australia. And according to ANZ senior economists Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny in their latest analysis of the data, the trend will start replenishing Fiji’s population briefly lost in worker exodus post COVID-19 and over the next year boost Fiji’s economic activity.
“Net overseas migration’ is the net gain or loss of population through immigration to and emigration from a country. And a net loss of population has been behind Fiji’s slowing population growth since 1966,” the economists wrote.
“Following the pandemic lock-down years of very little cross-border movement, demand for labour outside Fiji led to a net outflow of almost 20,000 people in the year ending June 2023, from an annual average of 5000 prior to COVID- 19.
“Australia and New Zealand have been the favoured destinations, accounting for 90 percent of all Fiji’s outbound migration.
“However, both countries are now tightening their migration policies.
“The spike in overseas migration that followed border reopening was temporary and unlikely to continue, as the ABS’ statistics confirm.”
ABS data showed that the “migration of Fijians into Australia fell by 28.1 percent to 5960 in the year to June 2024,” the economists wrote.
This, they said, follows a large rise in 2021-22 of 322.2per cent to 3,420 (+54.8 percent over 2019- 20) and a further 144.4 percent in 2022-23 to an all-time high of 8360.
“Long-term departures from Fiji (i.e. arrivals into Australia) fell by 23.1 percent over 2023-24 to 7030, while long-term arrivals into Fiji (i.e. departures from Australia) shot up by 37.2 percent to 1070 last financial year. This means that Fiji saw a net outflow of 5960 people.”
Going forward, the economists believe:
– Long-term work departures will continue to retreat from recent peaks, but employment schemes, such as the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program, will maintain some level of steady flow.
– Student migration, which drove the escalation in long-term departures, will continue to fall.
– Students returning from studies will boost Fiji’s long-term arrivals from 2025.
“We see net overseas migration adding to Fiji’s population from 2026.
“This population growth will lift domestic consumption, housing and infrastructure investment and provide the workforce to facilitate increased output,” the economist wrote.
NOTE: This article was first published in the print version of the Fiji Times dated December 20, 2024.