THE main sources of remittances growth in more recent times, either through long-term or short-term stay overseas, is unwinding as destination countries make it tougher to migrate to a permanent resident visa.
ANZ Group senior Pacific economist Kishti Sen said that meant remittances would plateau with the risk of it even falling a touch next year.
He warned it would be risky to rely on remittances to do all of the heavy lifting for consumer demand in 2026.
“Offsetting some of the negatives from remittances will be jobs growth in the private sector,” Mr Sen told this newspaper.
“We are banking on Fiji having a stronger business investment year and that will be a trigger for more hires.
“A higher number of people in employment is a positive for consumer demand.”
Mr Sen said if the roll out of material new projects did not come through, “I see consumer demand softening in 2026”.
He said post-pandemic, remittances boosted consumer demand when it lifted from below $500 million to above $1,200m.
“However, that driver of household final consumption expenditure is reversing or has run its course.
“Migrant (long-term) departures to countries like Australia and New Zealand is reversing and will unwind further as destination markets tighten pathways to a permanent residency visa.”
Mr Sen said Fiji’s long-term departures to Australia fell 38 per cent in the year to June 2025 and was now 51 per cent below the peak of 2023.
Personal remittances to Fiji surpassed the $1 billion mark in the year to September, according to the Reserve Bank of Fiji’s September 2025 quarterly review.
The review showed inward personal remittances rose to $1,019.1m, an annual increase of 4.3 per cent.
