The Fiji Meteorological Service has confirmed that a La Niña event is currently underway, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions expected in the coming months.
In its Fiji Ocean Outlook, issued last week, the Fiji Meteorological Service warned that above-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely across Fiji waters during the February to April 2026 period.
Warmer seas increase the risk of marine heat stress and coral bleaching, particularly in shallow reef areas.
The outlook indicates that the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is likely to be displaced south of its normal position, placing it within Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during the same period.
This shift is expected to influence rainfall patterns and ocean conditions across the group.
Of particular concern is the coral bleaching outlook, which has been assessed at Alert Level 1 for waters along the Coral Coast and across the Northern, Central, and Eastern Divisions.
A higher ‘Warning’ status applies to the remainder of Fiji waters, signalling increased thermal stress on coral reefs if elevated sea temperatures persist.
The Fiji Meteorological Service also noted changes in sea level patterns. Below-normal sea levels are likely for most of the Fiji Group during the February to April 2026 period, while above-normal sea levels are forecast for Rotuma.
Meteorologists say the combined effects of La Niña, warmer sea temperatures and shifting ocean-atmosphere patterns highlight the need for close monitoring, particularly for coastal communities, marine ecosystems and fisheries.
