Fiji could experience below normal rainfall and an increased risk of dry conditions in the coming months as climate models point toward a possible El Niño event developing later this year.
The warning has been issued in the latest Fiji Sugarcane Rainfall Outlook released by the Fiji Meteorological Service covering May to July 2026 and June to August 2026.
According to the report, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, but there are likely chances of a transition to El Niño during the May to July period.
“During an El Niño event, Fiji is likely to experience below normal rainfall and an increased risk of dry conditions,” the Weather Office stated.
Despite the developing El Niño risk, Fiji Met says lingering atmospheric effects from the recently ended La Niña phase may still bring wetter-than-normal conditions to some parts of the country over the next few months.
“Despite the end of the La Niña event, its influence on Fiji is likely to persist over the coming months due to its lag effect in atmospheric response to changes in ocean conditions, which could result in chances of wetter than normal conditions in some areas,” the report noted.
The rainfall outlook for sugarcane growing areas shows varying conditions across the country.
For May 2026, there is a 75 per cent chance of receiving:
- 25mm to 50mm of rainfall from Olosara to Tagitagi
- 50mm to 100mm from Vatukoula to Penang
- 50mm to 100mm across sugarcane growing areas in Vanua Levu
- 100mm to 150mm in Dobuilevu
Rainfall is expected to ease in June, with forecasts indicating:
- 0mm to 25mm from Cuvu to Tavua
- 25mm to 50mm in Olosara, Penang and sugarcane areas in Vanua Levu
- 50mm to 100mm in Dobuilevu
The July outlook shows:
- 0mm to 25mm of rainfall from Olosara to Tavua
- 25mm to 50mm in Penang, Dobuilevu and sugarcane growing areas in Vanua Levu
For the broader June to August period, Fiji Met forecasts:
- 50mm to 100mm from Olosara to Tagitagi
- 100mm to 200mm from Vatukoula to Penang
- 100mm to 200mm across Vanua Levu sugarcane belt areas
The Weather Office also reminded farmers and the public that although the 2025–2026 tropical cyclone season is nearing its end, out-of-season cyclones remain possible and precautions should continue to be observed.
