A weak La Niña pattern is expected to continue influencing Fiji’s weather into early 2026, bringing wetter-than-usual conditions to much of the country, according to the Fiji Meteorological Service.
“A weak La Niña event currently persists within the tropical Pacific Ocean,” the service said, noting that most global climate models expect the system to remain in place until early 2026 before easing back to neutral conditions.
For January, rainfall is likely to be above normal across the Western and Central divisions, while normal to above normal rainfall is expected for the Northern and Eastern divisions and Rotuma.
From January to March, the outlook points to above-normal rainfall across most of the Fiji Group, with Rotuma again likely to receive normal to above-normal totals.
Looking ahead to April–June, forecasters say guidance becomes less certain.
There are “almost equal chances of below normal, normal and above normal rainfall” across Fiji during that period — meaning conditions could shift either way depending on regional weather patterns.
The outlook also highlights the risk of tropical systems, with Fiji likely to experience one to two tropical cyclones this season.
Even the development of tropical disturbances or depressions “can result in above-normal rainfall” during the outlook period, the service warned.
Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than usual. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal in January, with the trend continuing from January to March.
“With the currently established La Niña conditions, the country is likely to experience above-average rainfall,” the statement said, adding that La Niña events typically enhance rainfall across Fiji during the wet season.
Authorities are advising communities, farmers and businesses to plan for potential heavy rain, flooding episodes and warmer conditions while continuing to monitor official weather updates.
