Fiji could face increasingly dry conditions in the coming months as El Niño conditions take hold across the Pacific, according to the latest Early Action Rainfall Watch (EAR Watch) for June.
The Fiji Meteorological Service has confirmed that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in its El Niño phase, a climate pattern that is often associated with below-average rainfall across much of Fiji.
The latest outlook indicates varying rainfall patterns across the country in the short term, but points to a broader drying trend extending through the next three months.
For the period from June 15 to 28, forecasters say there is a medium chance of very wet conditions for Navua, parts of the southern Lau Group, Lakeba, Vanuabalavu, Rabi, Udu Point and Rotuma.
However, Matuku and Ono-i-Lau face a medium chance of very dry conditions during the same period.
Looking at June as a whole, much of Fiji is expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions. Areas under a medium chance of very dry conditions include the Central Division, Beqa, Vatulele, Levuka, Koro Island, Matuku, much of the northern and southern Lau Group, Ono-i-Lau, Lakeba, Vanuabalavu, areas around Natewa Bay, Rabi and Udu Point.
The outlook becomes more pronounced for the June to August period.
Meteorologists forecast a high chance of very dry conditions for Matuku, Ono-i-Lau and parts of the southern Lau Group, while a medium chance of very dry conditions extends across the Central, Eastern and Northern divisions, as well as most parts of the Western Division.
Despite the dry outlook, no extreme rainfall alerts are currently in place for the rest of the Fiji Group.
The confirmation that El Niño is underway will be closely watched by farmers, water authorities and disaster management agencies, as prolonged dry conditions can affect agriculture, water supplies and increase the risk of drought.
El Niño events occur when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal, altering weather patterns across the region. In Fiji, El Niño is often linked to reduced rainfall and drier conditions, although local weather variations can still occur.
Authorities are expected to continue monitoring conditions closely as the dry season progresses and the impacts of El Niño become clearer.
