LONDON – To the casual observer, gaining the lion’s share of possession suggests a team has victory in the bag — but as this Rugby World Cup has shown, the important factor is what you do with it.
A team’s ability to make sure their possession and territory is reflected on the scoreboard can be measured with a metric called possession efficiency, which is based on how many points a team score per 1 per cent of their possession.
For example, if a team scores 25 points from 50 per cent of the possession, they will have a possession efficiency rating of 0.50. Another way to look at the rating is thatif a team hashalf the possession of their opponent (66 per cent versus 33 per cent) but is twice as effective when they have it, they will draw the match.
In simple terms, the more efficient a team are at turning possession into points, the more likely they are to win. So it’s this statistic that makes Scotland’s quarter-final effort as much of a talking point as the disputed penalty decision that allowed Bernard Foley to kick Australia ahead with just seconds left.
Scotland missed the Rugby World Cup 2015 semi-final by a point, losing 35-34 to the Wallabies, after coming within touching distance of a surprise victory despite registering the lower share of possession (45 per cent) and territory (38 per cent) for the match.
Dangerous opponent
In 92 Rugby World Cup matches since the start of the 2011 tournament, only four teams have managed to score more points (34) than Scotland with 45 per cent (or less) possession.
Only one team have managed to score more with 38 per cent (or less) territory — also Scotland at RWC 2015, when they scored 45 points against Japan with just 36 per cent territory.
Converting inferior possession to points makes a team dangerous to play against because simply starving them of ball is not enough to remove their threat.
Short list
Since the start of RWC 2011, just three of 92 matches (3.7 per cent) have been won by the team using their possession less efficiently than their opponent, with Australia becoming the latest entry on that very short list at the weekend.
When comparing the previous and current World Cups, Scotland are one of the most improved teams in turning possession into points, moving their rating of 0.33 in 2011 to 0.75 in 2015. At the end of the quarter-final stage, only Argentina (also big improvers from 2011), with 0.88, and New Zealand, with 0.87, were ahead of Scotland’s possession efficiency rating.
So what has Scotland done to raise efficiency? There are many reasons, but the match against Australia was a perfect example of almost all the things necessary to boost their rating.
Firstly, Greig Laidlaw (pictured, after the quarter-final) did not ‘leave points on the field’, kicking all of the penalty chances that came his way, as well as two of three conversions for an 88 per cent success rate.
Secondly, Scotland were brilliantly opportunistic with the three tries they scored in the match.
Intercept try
Peter Horne ran through a non-existent ruck defence from five metres in the first half, Finn Russell charged down a Foley defensive kick and offloaded superbly from the floor to put Tommy Seymour in just before the hour mark, and then in the final 10 minutes Mark Bennett smartly read a Wallabies attacking play for an intercept try that gave Scotland a two-point lead and hope of a first RWC semi-final since 1991.
In recent years, Scotland have been one of the best Six Nations teams at staying in matches with very little possession, and even managed to beat Ireland with a statistics-defying 12-8 home win despite just 29 per cent possession in the match.
Scotland’s defeat against Australia was unusual statistically, but in the end Scotland did as much as they could.
They lost not because of a refereeing decision, but because Australia, despite a poor kicking performance from Foley, still managed to register a high efficiency rating (0.64) thanks to their try-scoring ability. Only two of 48 matches since the start of RWC 2011 (4.2 per cent) were lost by a team that achieved a rating as high as Australia’s against Scotland.
Threat
Despite his disappointment, captain Laidlaw admitted as much afterwards when he said his team might have made the semi-final if they had tightened up a few areas of their play.
If they are able to do that and sustain the efficiency with which they have scored at RWC 2015, they will be a threat when the Six Nations starts in February.