OTTAWA (Reuters) – Donald Trump’s return to the White House next year could bring economic pain and difficult decisions for Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, once branded a “far left lunatic” by the Republican.

The potential consequences include trade disputes that push Canada into recession since 75% of its exports go to the U.S., as well as thousands of people pouring north across the U.S. border, analysts and economists said.

Trump’s victory adds to Trudeau’s woes at a time polls show he would likely lose to his Conservative opponent in an election that must be held within a year. Canada’s slowing economy and a rapid surge in the cost of living over the past few years are top campaign issues, which come against the backdrop of diplomatic disputes with China and India that have hampered efforts to diversify trade.