Fiji is expected to experience above-normal rainfall and warmer-than-average temperatures over the coming months, as a weak La Niña event continues to influence regional weather patterns.
According to the Fiji Climate Outlook for February 2026 through July 2026, a weak La Niña currently persists in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
However, most global climate models indicate a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions between February and April 2026.
For February 2026, rainfall across the Fiji Group is likely to be above normal, while outlook confidence for Rotuma remains low, with nearly equal chances of below-normal, normal, or above-normal rainfall.
Looking ahead to the February to April 2026 period, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across most of the country.
A similar pattern is forecast for the May to July 2026 period, with continued uncertainty for Rotuma due to mixed rainfall probabilities.
The outlook also notes that Fiji is likely to experience one to two tropical cyclones during the current tropical cyclone season, and warns that the development of tropical disturbances or depressions could lead to periods of significantly above-normal rainfall.
In terms of temperature, both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal across the Fiji Group in February 2026, a trend that is likely to persist through the February to April 2026 period.
While ENSO-neutral conditions typically bring average rainfall to Fiji, meteorologists caution that local weather systems, particularly during the Wet Season, can still result in notable short-term variations.
