The Fiji Meteorological Service is monitoring Tropical Disturbance TD01F/
The disturbance is moving slowly, with deep convection sitting over what is believed to be its low-level circulation centre.
Fiji Met reports that TD01F is situated in an environment of low to moderate wind shear, supported by good upper-level divergence and sea surface temperatures of around 28°C — conditions generally favourable for early development.
However, global weather models indicate the system will track southeast over the next 48 hours, moving into cooler waters and an area of stronger wind shear.
As this happens, TD01F is expected to transition into a subtropical system.
Given these factors, the potential for TD01F to develop into a tropical cyclone is rated low, dropping to very low beyond the next two days.
